Mark's Blog

Episode 24: Top 7 for 2007

Top 7 for 2007

OK time to play Karnack. The end of the year is a time where I like to reflect on the outcomes for the year and think about what will be the hot trends for 2007. In the Information-centric IT arena - I give you my 7 predictions for 2007. 

1. Virtualization

Ouch – hot, hot, hot. The value is just so compelling. Server virtualization will stay on fire.  Network Storage Virtualization will also start to gain momentum. NSV didn’t have the utilization gains (as we already fixed most of that with Network Storage) but the excellent value for dynamic data migration/provisioning/operations is still there. 

2. Information Security

Heating up. No one wants to be the next one in the press. To start, data classification will become a big goal for many companies. 

3. Data Vaults (replacing Tape Backup) – data de-duplication

This one is going to catch fire next year. That value proposition is just too good. Let’s see - I can keep everything on disk, make it more secure, backup maybe 20 times faster, recover like 100 times faster and do it for less cost than tape. This one is a no-brainer. 

4. Power and Cooling moves to the front burner

Kind-of like the car industry – those huge SUVs look great until gas skyrockets. Then maybe a hybrid isn’t that silly after all. Unlike automobiles, this will not be a passing fad. Power/density is a huge problem and will remain top of mind. 

5. Virtual Appliances

Once the world is “virtual,” there is a second-order benefit – the ability to create “Virtual Appliances.” We will no longer use a common OS to achieve HW heterogeneity. Virtual appliances - essentially companies packaging their Application with all of the necessary infrastructure components (OS, rdb, etc) will become a favored way to distribute applications. It will be much more reliable, cost effective, and easier to use. 

Watch for this trend to take off next year.

6. Collaboration Tools 

Our information is more scattered and our people are more scattered globally, yet we want to increase our efficiency and “ROI” (in this case Return on Information). Collaboration tools will be sought out to bridge this gap and should see a very good year.

After all, the airlines have now taken away food! Air travel is one of the few things that I can safely say is harder and more frustrating and less comfortable today than even 20 years ago. Technology will not fix travel but my guess is companies and employees will embrace these tools as an alternative to so much travel.  

7. Web Services move to the enterprise data center (aka SOA)

Look for big efforts to start to make IT Datacenters look more like Web 2.0. SOA will be the driver/enabler - some call it Enterprise 3.0. It is still early, but this one is a forgone conclusion of when, not if. Overall, combined with technologies like virtualization, it will transform the data center. Information Services that connect into SOA (what we call the Service-Oriented Infrastructure) will bring new value, consistency and cross-application leverage to information.

Honorable Mention – Rich Media (Digital Video)

While not quite a top pick, I do believe we will finally see the rich media (including IPTV, digital video production, digital movies, etc) gain significant ground in the coming year. This has been one of those thing that has been “on the horizon” for more than a decade but just not made it to prime time. 

What is different this time is that the technology has reached a point where commercial off-the-shelf components can be utilized for rich media. No more specialized systems costing 10X the price. Add in the distribution capabilities brought on by things like iTunes and uTube and it is clear that this one is really going to happen this time…

There you have it, my picks for the top “Information-Centric” technologies to watch in 2007. 

Happy New Year!

Mark…

Episode 23: Santa Mark

Oh - the Christmas (oops Holiday) season is upon us. It is always an interesting time. It seems like everyone goes into hyper-drive and runs twice as fast trying to get things done - kind of like those old Star Trek episodes with Kirk pushing the Enterprise to Warp 9 and Mr. Scott saying "aye captain - she's not going to take it much longer!"  

This is one case where I am not sure if technology helps or just makes us feel like we need to do more. I did all of my shopping this year without stepping foot in a single mall (definitely good in my book). Thanks to folks like Amazon, it is now easy to buy virtually everything online and “drop ship” things to tons of people. Christmas cards are pre-printed, address labels are all on the computer so the result is that we now can efficiently send cards to our 5000 dearest friends and not break a sweat.

Even though technology helps us do more - I think quality (vs quantity) needs to return to the focus. This is one time where we should all probably try to take a deep breath and reflect a bit on what is important - and not just try to do more.  

The latest greeting card efficiency is "eCards." Mostly used by companies, these have taken effort to a new low. How much do I think someone "cares" when they send me an Email that costs essentially - nothing and took no time to write - wow - one step above Spam. I feel so special when I get one – not.

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The one thing I will remember about this year will be being "Santa Mark" for my wife's fundraiser. This wasn't your basic Santa gig though -Sharon is in Canine Companions - a great group that raises trained dogs for people with disabilities. They raised funds this year by having folks pay to have their pet’s photo taken with Santa. And I already gave away my role...

At any rate, it was great to step out of the daily routine and do something that I just would never have pictured myself doing. 

So, my suggestion for the Holidays is to tone down the technology, don’t worry about putting up 12000 lights in the yard, and spend some quality time with family, friends, and just help out in some way.

We can all go back to technology in a couple of weeks. 

Happy Holidays!

Mark…

Episode 22: Ruralization - IT Farms

We all have heard about globalization. While not always popular topic in here in the US, it is clearly an established trend. I believe that all major companies need to think globally in every respect these days but that is a topic for another time.

In this episode I want to introduce the topic of “Ruralization.” I define this as the cost-optimized placement of a data center. The name pre-fetches an answer of course but that’s what names do.

The fact is today’s data centers evolved around metrics that no longer exist. Ten years ago, I would characterize the data center attributes as: 

• HW cost = same cost as Gold by weight
• Service/Support Skills needed = Training could be like getting a medical degree
• SW Programmer “Interaction” with HW = we all sat in the lab so we could      constantly push the init button….
• Overall potential for remote management = non-existent
• Power cost = Who cares
• Facilities cost = with the other issues, it was just a cost of doing business
• Long distance Bandwidth costs = High (if even feasible)
• Long distance “Interaction” (latency) = Impossible

Note I used a highly technical analysis here… 

At the time, companies made the right choice and did the only thing they could do which was co-locate their data centers with their users and their programmers – even if it meant buying AAA space in downtown NYC. For the most part, that is where we stand today.

Now let’s take a look at those same parameters above in a today’s economy using today’s latest technologies. It now looks like this: 

• HW cost = Thought that stuff just came free with the software…
• Service/Support Skills needed = One word - easy
• SW Programmer “Interaction” with HW = probably never have seen it….
• Overall potential for remote management = could be managed by bother-in law in Antarctica
• Power cost = Woa – my last utility bill was higher than my first mortgage!
• Facilities cost = Donald Trump is driving the cost trough the roof.
• Long distance Bandwidth costs = We’ve got enough buried fiber for us all to      watch our own IPTV channel.
• Long distance “Interaction” (latency) = Childs play

What’s changed?- EVERYTHING. 

The really big guys (e.g. Microsoft, Google) have figured this out and are now building their newest datacenters in rural locations, often even near power plants. The economics are compelling.

This is not going to stop here. I believe that Ruralization will not be limited to a few big players but, more and more, companies will seek out new datacenter locations based on these new cost dynamics.  

I believe the datacenters of the future will be located based on this new economy and, if you want to “see the Hardware” you better plan to stay at the Motel 6 in a small town in North Dakota. Actually, to me, Iceland looks pretty attractive. Geothermal power, good trunk links to Europe and the US, and is it so cold you could just open the windows for air conditioning!

Mark…

Episode 21: Lost in Translation

So I am sitting here in a bar in Tokyo. Not just any bar though – the lobby bar on the 41^st floor at the Park Hyatt. For those of you that don’t know it, this is the bar used in the movie Lost in Translation. And, just like Bill Murray, I am having a scotch and a cigar (yes - something that is now illegal in most of the US so it is just that much more fun). As a rule, I stay in pretty ordinary hotels but the Park Hyatt is my exception. It is far and away my favorite business hotel in the world. It sits in the middle of Tokyo but has a way of making you feel completely at peace and relaxed.

For those that I have talked to that have seen the movie – there are two reactions. Folks either had a full understanding of the point of the plot or said “I just don’t get it.” I figure the correlation just about coincides with those that travel often globally and those that don’t. The movie is kind of an “inside joke” if you will.

My favorite scene is where Bill Murray is taking direction for a commercial facilitated though a Japanese translator. The director (speaking Japanese) would go on for 30 seconds talking in Japanese and the translator would translate the long oratory to something like “please lift your head up.” Bill becomes obsessed that he is not getting the all of the translation – but the question is – is he getting the key information?

I was here to give the keynote at our customer forum and talk to a number of customers. If you have ever given a speech where there is going to be translation, especially into Japanese, you need to plan. All of those catch phrases, jokes, and many of the analogies have to go. You have to speak slowly (or the translator freaks out), and choose your words carefully (although I don’t think I could cause a diplomatic incident with a mistake here). If you’re not careful, a 30 minute speech can go an hour.

If you fail, your message will get “lost in translation” so to speak. What I find interesting is how much you need to clarify and simply your message and value proposition if you are going to be successful. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, however. What I have found today after numerous customer meetings and speeches is that, if your message and value proposition to a customer is compelling through translation – then you really have something.

This is a great test of a company’s value proposition. If it gets “lost in translation” and needs too much explanation – then maybe it isn’t really that compelling after all. I am happy to report that, based on the customer response, we passed the translation test.

Mark…

 

Episode 20: Flat IT Part 3 – Virtual Reality

 

I view it as critical to maintain as close of touch with “trends” and new ideas as possible so I try out many of the new web-based applications that my kids are using. All but Match.com of course as my wife thought experimentation there went just a bit too far…. 

As an Information-centric IT company, I am pleased to report that we are creating new information like crazy. One of the more interesting sites is “Second Life” which now has over a million accounts. In short, Second Life, let’s you create a “virtual” you (Avatar) and explore a virtual world and interact just like you would in the “real” one - almost. What is interesting is that a “real” economy is evolving around this virtual community in terms of buying virtual land (for real $), setting up businesses (with virtual and real products), etc.

You can see for yourself if you need more detail (Second Life). The simple fact is the virtualization is expanding what we can do. With any technology there are ways in which it can go awry. 

 

One short riff on privacy and anonymity – One of the largest problems I believe we have created with much of this new technology is that we actually allow too much anonymity – in the name of “privacy.” To me, this has inhibited the full exploitation of many facets of new technology for business uses. For example, I would like to participate and leverage lots of technology like this but, even in a virtual world (for business), there is little value if you can’t identify the person on the other end of the interaction.

A simple example, I am sick of getting anonymous emails where the spammer, marketer or company says “please do not reply to the Email” or simply hides who they are. I always want to send back a note saying, if you don’t think there is enough value in listening to me, how you could possibly think there is any value in me listening to you! The other problem with anonymity, is that it generally puts people in a position of doing things they wouldn’t (or shouldn’t) normally do. 

I really hope that we do create more versions of technology that let us use this technology in ways to conduct real business.

OK, back to the story. Virtualization relative to IT infrastructures has been huge success. We are effectively separating the Software from the Hardware which can provide a multitude of benefits. One of the early benefits has been consolidation. As IT had evolved to a “one application, one server” mentality – server virtualization offers a way to radically consolidate HW resources. Virtual networks let use share resources without building new infrastructures.

Yes I know we have done this on Mainframes for decades. The point is that we now can do it on HW that is affordable, scaleable, and where little is required in terms of fault tolerance. 

Virtualization, I believe however, will go well beyond it beginnings and become a key base unpinning within the Flat IT world. Utilization will be a part of it but, more importantly, virtualization allows us to create a completely fluid and dynamic IT environment. This fluidity is the lynchpin in terms of how we really build IT Utilities.

Let’s think about some simple examples. If you have ever configured a server, think about the time it takes to change a server from a Web server to a database server, to an Email server. Even with the best tools, it is not easy and it is definitely not dynamic. With virtualization the fluidity of change will simply move to a completely new level, allowing IT resources to be applied (leveraging other technologies like Grid) almost instantaneously to meet changing needs. 

For most IT Managers, I believe they would just be happy not having to plan downtime when the want to migrate a server or storage system. Yes, in ten years we might have a fully autonomous dynamic self-managing IT environment but, there is huge value is just the first basic step – separating the Software from the Hardware.

Mark…